construct-scenario

Purpose

Construct scenarios across key uncertainties with explicit assumptions and plausibility, including baseline, counterfactual, and extreme-but-plausible modes.

Input contract

required: [context, uncertainty_set, scenario_mode]
optional: [drivers, dependency_model, probability_method, recovery_assumptions]
constraints: [scenario assumptions and distinguishing observables must be explicit]

Procedure

1. Select uncertainty axes and record their state space.
2. Generate distinct combinations appropriate to the mode.
3. Propagate interactions, breaking points, failure cascades, and recovery assumptions where applicable.
4. Attach plausibility rationale, distinguishing observables, and outcome implications.

Output contract

produces: [scenario_set, assumptions, plausibility_rationales, observables, outcome_implications]
delta_fields: [findings, hypothesis_updates, uncertainties, open_questions]

Quality gates

• At least 3 scenarios span different combinations of key uncertainties.
• Scenarios are internally consistent and materially distinct.
• Worst-case mode includes breaking point, cascade, recovery, and observables.

Parameterization

Caller supplies context schema, uncertainty axes, mode, distinctness rule, plausibility/probability method, and worst-case fields.

Failure and counterexamples

Reject decorative narratives that do not vary an uncertainty or expose a testable implication.

Provenance map

• resolved: scenario-construction
• resolved: counterfactual-scenario-construction
• resolved: worst-case-construction
• resolved: stress-scenario

Preserved source criteria ledger

source	criterion
scenario-construction	Output contains at least 3 distinct scenarios spanning different combinations of key uncertainties.
scenario-construction	Each scenario includes a narrative, key assumptions, and probability estimate.
worst-case-construction	Extreme-but-plausible mode includes breaking points, failure cascades, and recovery assessment.