diplomatic-state-assessment

Overview

A method for assessing the health and trajectory of foreign states through diplomatic visits, as demonstrated by Ji Zha's missions to various states.

Steps

1. Assess Political Leadership

   • Observe the ruling class behavior
   • Note concentration of power trends
   • Identify virtuous individuals in government

2. Evaluate Imminent Dangers

   • Look for signs of political instability
   • Identify those who may face calamity
   • Warn appropriate individuals discretely

3. Provide Strategic Advice

   • Recommend divestment of power/territory when danger looms
   • Advise on self-preservation strategies
   • Suggest appropriate cautionary measures

4. Identify Safe Havens

   • Look for states with many virtuous men (君子)
   • Assess which states will avoid disaster
   • Note concentration of capable leadership

Examples from Practice

• In Qi: Advised Yan Pingzhong to give up territory and political power to avoid disaster
• In Zheng: Warned Zichan of coming turmoil and advised governing with caution and ritual
• In Wei: Identified many virtuous men, predicted safety from disaster
• In Jin: Predicted power consolidation in three families; advised Shuxiang on self-preservation

Decision Points

• If leadership is extravagant and power is consolidating, predict political upheaval
• If virtuous individuals abound, predict stability
• If ruling class is complacent while danger approaches, warn of imminent threat

Expected Outcomes

• Accurate prediction of political changes
• Ability to advise allies on avoiding disaster
• Recognition of which states will rise or fall

Validation

1. Confirm political leadership has been assessed for power concentration trends and signs of instability
2. Verify that at-risk individuals have been warned discreetly with specific self-preservation advice (divestment of power/territory)
3. Check that states with many virtuous men (君子) are identified as safe havens and those with extravagant, complacent leadership are flagged for upheaval