Pi Cycle Top/Bottom Indicator

Skill #80 | Category: Analysis | Inspired by: TradingView Pi Cycle Indicator

Detect Bitcoin market cycle tops and bottoms using the Pi Cycle indicator - historically accurate for identifying major BTC peaks.

Overview

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator uses the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (multiplied by 2) to identify market cycle tops. When the 111 DMA crosses above the 350 DMA x2, it has historically signaled BTC cycle tops with remarkable accuracy.

Historical Accuracy

Date	Event	BTC Price	Accuracy
Apr 2013	Cycle Top	$230	✅ Within 3 days
Dec 2013	Cycle Top	$1,150	✅ Within 3 days
Dec 2017	Cycle Top	$19,800	✅ Within 3 days
Apr 2021	Local Top	$64,000	✅ Within 3 days
Nov 2021	Cycle Top	$69,000	✅ Within 1 week

How It Works

Top Detection

Condition: 111 DMA > (350 DMA × 2)
Signal: Extreme overheating - potential cycle top

Bottom Detection (Extended)

Condition: Price < 200 WMA and RSI(Monthly) < 30
Signal: Extreme oversold - potential cycle bottom

K.I.T. Enhancements

Beyond basic Pi Cycle, K.I.T. adds:

1. Distance Tracking: How far until crossover?
2. Velocity Analysis: Rate of MA convergence
3. Time Estimation: "~X days until potential crossover"
4. Multi-Asset: Apply to ETH, SOL, other crypto
5. Alert System: Notify when approaching danger zone
6. Bottom Indicator: Extended version for bottoms
7. Confidence Score: Based on convergence pattern

Usage

import { getPiCycleStatus } from 'kit/skills/pi-cycle';

const status = await getPiCycleStatus('BTCUSD');

console.log(status);
// {
//   symbol: 'BTCUSD',
//   ma111: 68500,
//   ma350x2: 72000,
//   distance: -4.86%,    // Negative = not crossed
//   velocity: 0.5%/day,  // Rate of convergence
//   daysToConvergence: 10,
//   signal: 'Approaching',
//   riskLevel: 'High',
//   historicalContext: 'Similar to Nov 2021 pattern'
// }

Alerts

import { setPiCycleAlert } from 'kit/skills/pi-cycle';

// Alert when within 5% of crossover
setPiCycleAlert({
  symbol: 'BTCUSD',
  threshold: 5, // percent
  notify: ['telegram', 'email']
});

Risk Zones

Distance	Risk Level	Action
> 20%	Low	Accumulate
10-20%	Medium	Be cautious
5-10%	High	Consider taking profits
0-5%	Extreme	Exit most positions
Crossed	TOP SIGNAL	Max defense mode

API

Endpoints

• GET /api/pi-cycle/:symbol - Current Pi Cycle status
• GET /api/pi-cycle/:symbol/history - Historical crossovers
• POST /api/pi-cycle/alert - Set alert

WebSocket

Subscribe to real-time Pi Cycle updates:

ws.subscribe('pi-cycle:BTCUSD');
// Receives updates when distance changes significantly

Comparison

Feature	TradingView	Glassnode	K.I.T.
Top indicator	✅	✅	✅
Bottom indicator	❌	✅	✅
Distance tracking	❌	❌	✅
Time estimation	❌	❌	✅
Multi-asset	❌	❌	✅
Alerts	Paid	Paid	✅ Free
API	❌	Paid	✅ Free