Signal Builder - the judgment layer (05)

Signal vendors sell facts ("company X raised", "company Y is hiring"). Scrapers sell pages. Neither tells you whether a fact is a Pain-led trigger, a Value-led opening, or noise for this particular client. That call - which finding matters, how much, and what to do with it - is this skill. It runs on model judgment alone: no API key, no credits spent.

Two ways in:

You have	Mode
One prospect - a URL, pasted content, or a content file	A - Single prospect
Chain output - records.jsonl and run folders from 01/02/03/04	B - Batch over records

Both modes need icp_context, and both produce the same two outputs: a human report and chain records.

icp_context and icp_shape

icp_context (required): what the client sells, who they sell to, and what pain it removes. 2-4 sentences is enough. If it's missing, ask once - accept a pasted description or a file path. A signal only exists relative to this context: a hiring spree is a 9 for one client and noise for another.

icp_shape picks the calibration catalog:

Shape	Prospects look like	Catalog
b2b-saas	funded companies, title-based orgs, tech stacks, exec moves	references/signal-types-b2b-saas.md
vertical-smb	local or owner-operated - studios, venues, clinics, restaurants, trades	references/signal-types-vertical-smb.md

If the user doesn't pass a shape, infer it from icp_context (end-customers that are local, Maps-addressable businesses → vertical-smb; otherwise b2b-saas) and state which one you picked. Read the catalog before scanning - it carries the per-shape scoring adjustments, not just examples. For a vertical neither catalog fits, see references/calibration-guide.md.

Mode A - single prospect

1. Get content. Pasted or file content: use as-is. URL only: if the 03-firecrawl-research skill is installed, run its standard mode and use the scan output; otherwise fetch the high-signal pages directly (homepage, /about, /careers, /pricing, /blog) with whatever fetch tool is available. List any page you couldn't get - a missing careers page is a coverage gap to report, not a zero signal.
2. Judge (method below) and write the report. If this prospect is part of a chain run, also emit a record (Mode B, step 3).

Mode B - batch over chain records

scripts/signal_io.py is stdlib-only Python - no installs. Paths below are relative to this skill's directory.

1. Collect - assemble one evidence bundle per domain from upstream outputs:

   python3 scripts/signal_io.py collect \
     --records path/to/03-run/records.jsonl \
     --records path/to/04-run/records.jsonl \
     --scrape-run path/to/03-run \
     --crustdata-run path/to/04-run \
     --out runs/2026-07-21-acme-batch
   

   --records takes any chain records.jsonl - 01, 02 (Maps), and 04 run folders all emit one.

   Every flag except --out is optional and repeatable; pass whatever upstream artifacts exist. Records merge by domain (upstream fields are kept, never overwritten). Output: inputs/<domain>.md bundles, records_in.jsonl, tracker.json, meta.json. Re-running collect is safe - done domains stay done.

   Bundles with no page content and no structured signals are flagged thin in the tracker. For a thin batch, run 03-firecrawl-research first; for 10 or fewer domains it's fine to fetch pages yourself as in Mode A and judge from that.

2. Judge each pending domain: read inputs/<domain>.md, apply the method below, write the signal JSON to a temp file, then:

3. Emit - validate and append to the chain output:

   python3 scripts/signal_io.py emit --run runs/2026-07-21-acme-batch \
     --domain acme.com --signals-json /tmp/acme-signals.json
   

   Emit enforces the record contract (fields, score range, approach enum, non-empty sentence and source), merges signals into the upstream record, appends to records.jsonl, and marks the domain done. On a validation failure it names the bad signal and rule - fix the JSON and re-emit. Re-emitting a domain replaces its record instead of duplicating it.

4. Resume / finish: python3 scripts/signal_io.py status --run runs/<id> shows done/pending. When all domains are done, write runs/<id>/report.md (per-domain report sections plus segment-level patterns you noticed) and point the user at records.jsonl - that file is what 06-resolution and the router consume.

For batches over ~100 domains, judge in passes of 25 and re-check score distribution between passes (see the honesty threshold below) so drift doesn't compound.

How to judge

Work one domain at a time with the shape catalog open.

1. Pull candidates from every source. Page content: careers/jobs, blog/news, pricing, integrations, footer tech clues. Structured blocks: funding rounds, headcount and department growth, recent hires, job postings. Enrichment beats inference - if a structured block says 12 recent hires, don't re-derive headcount from prose.
2. A structured signal is a fact, not a verdict. "18 recent hires" becomes a signal only when the roles map to the pain the client solves. That mapping is the judgment. The same goes in reverse: don't discard a boring-looking fact before checking it against icp_context.
3. Score each candidate 1-10 against the anchors below, adjusted by the catalog.
4. Assign an approach per signal (table below).
5. Provenance, every signal. Web signal: quote the sentence verbatim from the page and cite the page URL. Structured signal: state the fact exactly as the data supports it (round, amount, date; name, title, start date) and cite vendor:section:domain, e.g. crustdata:funding:acme.com. A finding you can't source isn't a signal - drop it or report it as a gap.
6. Prefer combinations. Hiring for the role plus competitor friction outranks either alone. Write the combination as one signal: lead sentence and source_url from the strongest piece of evidence, the rest in notes.
7. Cap at 5 signals, always end with a fallback. Downstream copy uses the top 2-3; a 12-item list is unranked noise. If nothing clears a 3, say so plainly - the fallback is the campaign in that case.

Scoring anchors

Score	Means	Typical evidence
9-10	Switching intent or acute pain, now	competitor in place plus visible friction; active job post for the exact role the product replaces or augments; public complaint that maps 1:1 to the value prop
7-8	One strong behavioral signal	leadership hire in the relevant function; fresh funding aimed at the client's area; JD language describing the exact pain; negative reviews in the problem area
5-6	Problem-space evidence	adjacent tools in the stack; hiring around (not in) the function; growth or expansion straining the relevant process
3-4	Contextual fit only	right stage, size, or business model - no behavioral evidence
1-2	ICP match only	fallback territory

Score honestly - downstream copy calibrates tone on the number, so an inflated 8 reads as false familiarity in the email. If more than 40% of a batch scores 8+, re-check those domains against the anchors before emitting more.

Approach per signal

Approach	Use when	Email shape
Pain-led	the signal names a specific, acute pain you can ask about	"Noticed [signal]. Teams in that spot usually deal with [pain]. Is that you?"
Value-led	you can hand over something genuinely useful tied to the signal before asking for anything	"Put together [artifact] for you - [insight]."
Segment fallback	moderate or contextual signals; every fallback	lead with the most common pain for the profile, ask if it resonates

Signals scoring 8+ usually carry Pain-led. Pick Value-led only when a real artifact exists to give (an audit, a teardown, a list), not a hypothetical one. 4 and under: Segment fallback.

Output 1 - the report

One section per judged prospect. Keep this structure so reports stay comparable across prospects and runs:

## Signal Scan: {Company}
**URL:** {url} · **Shape:** {icp_shape}
**Summary:** {1-2 sentences: what they do, their situation, the most interesting finding}

### Signal 1: {Name} (Score: X/10)
**Detected:** {the factual finding}
**Implies:** {what their team is dealing with day to day}
**Approach:** {Pain-led | Value-led | Segment fallback}
**Angle:** {one sentence - the core message this signal enables}
**Source:** {url or vendor ref} - "{the quotable sentence}"
**Data points for copy:** {variable}: {value} · {variable}: {value}

### Signal 2: ... (highest score first)

### Fallback (Score: X/10)
**Assumption:** {most common pain for this profile}
**Approach:** Segment fallback
**Angle:** {one sentence}

Close the report with the handoff: top 1-2 signals plus the fallback are the campaign set to pass to email-writer (or whatever writes the copy) - signal 1 drives the lead campaign, the fallback drives the catch-all.

Output 2 - the chain record

What 06-resolution and the router parse. One JSON object per domain in records.jsonl: the upstream record with two added fields. Upstream fields (company, domain, person, filters_matched, anything else) pass through untouched.

{"company": "Acme Corp", "domain": "acme.com", "person": null,
 "filters_matched": ["has_homepage", "has_careers", "Series A $18M"],
 "signals": [
   {"signal_type": "hiring-role-replaced",
    "signal_sentence": "You'll own supplier escalations across email, WhatsApp and phone.",
    "source_url": "https://acme.com/careers",
    "score": 9, "approach": "Pain-led",
    "evidence_date": "2026-07", "notes": "2 open Supply Chain Coordinator roles"}
 ],
 "fallback_approach": {"approach": "Segment fallback",
                       "angle": "Mid-market distributors usually drown in manual PO chasing"}}

Field rules (emit enforces them):

• signal_type - kebab-case; use the catalog's type name where one fits, free-form otherwise
• signal_sentence - the referenceable evidence: verbatim quote for web signals, faithful fact statement for structured signals
• source_url - http(s):// page URL, or vendor:section:domain for structured signals
• score - integer 1-10 · approach - Pain-led | Value-led | Segment fallback
• signals sorted by score descending, max 5; evidence_date and notes optional
• fallback_approach - always present: {approach, angle}

Failure modes to avoid

• Embellished quotes. The signal_sentence for a web signal is copied from the page, not improved. If the finding is a composition ("3 roles in 30 days"), the composition goes in the report and notes; the sentence stays verbatim.
• Generic signals. "They're growing" is not a signal. "Posted 3 Supply Chain Coordinator roles in the last 30 days" is.
• Inflated scores. A 4/10 batch is useful information - it tells the client this segment needs a Segment fallback catch-all, not personalization theater.
• Invented sources. Never cite a URL you didn't see in the bundle or fetch. If coverage was thin, say which pages were missing instead.
• Editing upstream fields. The record is additive; you add signals and fallback_approach, nothing else changes.

Scope boundaries

Not this skill	Use instead
Scrape sites at scale	03-firecrawl-research
Pull funding / headcount / hires from vendors	04-crustdata-signals
Find or verify email addresses	06-resolution-email-person
Write the actual emails	email-writer

References

• references/signal-types-b2b-saas.md - B2B SaaS calibration catalog
• references/signal-types-vertical-smb.md - vertical SMB calibration catalog
• references/calibration-guide.md - reply-gym format: calibrate a new vertical from classified reply data