kai-budget — Marketing Budget Planning & Forecasting

Build a data-driven marketing budget: channel allocation, CAC/LTV modeling, ROI projections, and spend optimization by stage.

Phase 0: Load Product Context

Check if MARKETING.md exists in the project root (same directory as CLAUDE.md, README.md, package.json).

If it exists: Read it — skip product discovery questions. It has the product name, ICP, value prop, monetization, brand voice, current channels, and competitive landscape.

If it does NOT exist: Auto-explore the codebase to create it in the project root (next to CLAUDE.md). Do NOT ask the user what the product is. Read CLAUDE.md, README.md, PROJECT.md, package.json, landing pages, and any project files. Search for email/ad/analytics config. Then create MARKETING.md using the template from /kai-email-system. Present draft to user for confirmation.

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References

Load these files as context before starting:

• knowledge/playbooks/marketing-budget-forecasting.md
• knowledge/playbooks/saas-metrics-guide.md
• knowledge/personas/_persona-index.md

Phase 1 — Discovery

1. Read from MARKETING.md. Only ask about things not covered there:
   • Business model (SaaS, ecommerce, services, marketplace)
   • Current MRR/ARR or revenue
   • Growth stage (pre-launch, early, growth, scale)
   • Current marketing spend (total and by channel, if known)
   • Target growth rate or revenue goal
   • Sales cycle length and average deal size
   • Current CAC and LTV (if known)
   • Team size (in-house marketers, agencies, contractors)
2. If user lacks metrics, estimate ranges based on industry benchmarks.
3. Identify which channels are currently active and their rough performance.

Phase 2 — Analysis

Unit Economics Model

1. Calculate or estimate:
   • CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) — total spend / new customers
   • LTV (Lifetime Value) — ARPU x average lifespan
   • LTV:CAC ratio — target 3:1 or better
   • Payback period — months to recover CAC
   • Gross margin — to validate spend capacity
2. Benchmark against industry standards for their business model.
3. Flag any broken economics (LTV:CAC below 1:1, payback > 18 months).

Channel Performance Audit

For each active channel, assess:

• Current spend
• Volume (leads, signups, purchases)
• CAC for that channel
• Trend direction (improving, stable, degrading)
• Saturation risk (diminishing returns at current spend)

Phase 3 — Produce

Build these deliverables:

Budget Allocation Model

• Total recommended monthly/quarterly marketing budget
• Percentage of revenue benchmark (stage-appropriate)
• Channel-by-channel allocation with rationale:

Channel	Monthly Spend	Expected CAC	Expected Volume	Confidence
[channel]	$X	$Y	Z leads	High/Med/Low

ROI Projections (3 scenarios)

• Conservative: 80% of target performance
• Base case: expected performance
• Aggressive: 120% of target with increased spend

Each scenario includes: spend, leads, customers, revenue, ROI, payback period.

Spend Ramp Plan

• Month-by-month ramp schedule (don't dump budget all at once)
• Testing budget allocation (10-20% for experiments)
• Kill criteria: when to stop spending on a channel
• Scale criteria: when to increase spend on a channel

Optimization Recommendations

• Channels to increase (high ROI, not saturated)
• Channels to decrease (poor CAC, saturated)
• Channels to test (untapped, stage-appropriate)
• Budget reserved for testing new channels

Phase 4 — Output

1. Deliver the complete budget model as a structured document.
2. Include a one-page executive summary with:
   • Total recommended spend
   • Expected customer acquisition volume
   • Blended CAC target
   • Projected ROI
   • Top 3 risks and mitigations
3. Provide a quarterly review cadence recommendation.
4. Flag any assumptions that need validation with real data.

Constraints

• Never recommend spending more than the user can sustain for 6 months.
• Always include a testing budget (10-20% of total).
• Stage-appropriate recommendations only — no enterprise tactics for pre-launch.
• All projections must include confidence levels (High/Medium/Low).
• CAC targets must be validated against LTV — never recommend unprofitable acquisition.
• Round budget numbers to practical amounts (not $4,731.28 — use $4,700 or $5,000).